Could the 2010 hurricane season forecast just be hype?
Joe Bastardi and the NHC are calling for like 20 storms to develop this year and a very increased threat of a major hurricane landfall on the US. But could this just be hype and only 1-9 storms develop and stay off land and become fish storms like last years season? Knowing J.B., its hype but idk about the NHC
Tagged with: fish • hurricane landfall • hype • idk • joe bastardi • nhc • storms
Filed under: Hurricane Questions
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It might be, it might not be. No one knows. Last year and 2006 were supposed to be big hurricane years but they ended up both only having 9 named storms. But on the other hand 2005 was predicted to be no way near as worse as it ended up being. We won’t know until it actually happens. Once storms start to develop, when and where they develop will help give a better prediction on what the season stores.
No, it is not hype. The NHC has no reason to inappropriately hype, so its forecasts can at least be taken as genuine. It is entirely possible that the actual conditions defy current predictions, and we end up with an inactive and benign season; however, given that all forecast agencies I’ve seen are expecting a hyperactive season, it is rather unlikely. With an increased number of storms, the likelihood of at least one major hurricane strike in the U.S. also goes up, but it is impossible to be more specific than that.
Why would a professional weather prediction organization, which people depend on to live through their daily lives by knowing what to prepare for, make up an estimation?