Isn’t Global Warming supposed to cause more hurricanes of larger intensity?
So maybe the Global Warming Alarmists can explain this data:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/GRAYCYCLES.JPG
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Contrast_tracks_east_coast.jpg
In the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days. By contrast, in a similar 25-year period from 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general warming trend, there were only 38 major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as many). Atlantic sea surface temperatures and hurricane activity is related to but does not necessarily follow global mean temperature trends.
What made the 2004 and 2005 seasons so unusually destructive was not the high frequency of major hurricanes but the high percentage of hurricanes that were steered over the US coastline.
Tagged with: atlantic basin • atlantic sea surface • cat 3 • east coast • global warming • globe • high frequency • hurricane activity • hurricane days • hurricanes • images • quarter century • sea surface temperatures • temperature trends • us coastline • warming trend
Filed under: Hurricane Questions
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I don’t know what data your graphs are based on, so I can’t comment on them.
"The maximum wind speeds of the strongest tropical cyclones have increased significantly since 1981, according to research published in Nature this week. And the upward trend, thought to be driven by rising ocean temperatures, is unlikely to stop at any time soon."
not really. Hurricanes still need cool/cold air to power them. The warmer the earth gets the less cool air they get
Yeah you are right. There is no such thing as global warming. People are just trying to sell their crap.
I question my self if there is such thing as global warming. I live in omaha and they close schools it gets so cold. Nothing better than a -35 wind chill
It causes larger hurricanes like Katrina and also that hurricane that hit off the coast of Maine.
There is also a multidecadal oscillation of the thermohaline circulation that has a much greater effect on hurricane patterns than could global warming. This oscillation affects sea surface temperature much more than would global warming, and thus has more influence on hurricane intensity. While global warming would change sea surface temperature somewhat, the change so far would not be nearly enough to disrupt the pattern due the natural changes in sea surface temperature.
Funny isn’t it.
All these dramatic changes should have occurred shortly after the Industrial Revolution.
Never before seen - Massive amounts of pollution, yet nothing happened.
Why is that?
Polar Bears should be extinct by now.
New York should be flooded by now.
Polar Ice caps should be melted by now.
Why don’t the results correlate with the infusion of massive pollution?
democrats dont know anything more about so called global warming than my chihuahua that lives in my basement. The answer to our global warming issue is, if Al Gore will just shut up, our problem will be solved….When God gets ready for this world to be gone it will be.
To answer your question, it’s not clear what effect global warming will have on hurricanes. Hurricanes basically need two things to form and strengthen: warm water (T > 80F) and low wind shear. While global warming is expected to increase the amount warm water, some models also suggest that it will increase the amount of wind shear and hence DECREASE the number of hurricanes (at least in the Atlantic basin). There are certainly many factors in play besides an increase in global mean temperature. Hurricane formation and intensity forecasting is notoriously difficult.
Personally (and this is my own personal bias) I would be very reluctant to rely on hurricane intensities for climatology in the pre-satellite era. Few distant storms were penetrated by aircraft and the errors in intensity could be quite large, and it’s even possible that some storms were not detected at all. Greater consistency in hurricane magnitude estimation was achieved following continuous satellite monitoring and Dvorak’s seminal work (See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/H1.html )
By the way, you have essentially stolen the body of your question (without attribution) from a document prepared by the group of Drs. Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2008/aug2008/aug2008.pdf
Would ya please give Al Gore a break? Maybe the oldie is yappin about some truth after all…. I mean in Sri Lanka where I live the weather is so weird. We had a depression recently and depressions only happen in temperate latitudes….It’s been raining all year when it was supposed to be scorching heat….
Have you ever wondered why earthquakes and hurricanes have record high magnitudes?
The heat causes the oceans to warm up…heat is the single main power source of hurricanes- not cold air as someone else said before…
The heat spirals up and forms category high winds and forms a lot of water..
Ya sometimes I find Al Gore seriously annoying but for once the politicians are spitting out the truth….i don’t see why he couldn’t have done that during the election…..
Why didn’t you put up a chart showing storms globally per decade along with intensity? Is the US coast the entire planet?
The IPCC makes it quite clear in the Fourth Assessment Report,
Possibly fewer but far more intense storms due to global warming.
Chapter Ten-
Page 751
"Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons)
Results from embedded high-resolution models and
global models, ranging in grid spacing from 100 km to 9 km,
project a likely increase of peak wind intensities and notably,
where analysed, increased near-storm precipitation in future
tropical cyclones. Most recent published modelling studies
investigating tropical storm frequency simulate a decrease in
the overall number of storms, though there is less confidence
in these projections and in the projected decrease of relatively
weak storms in most basins, with an increase in the numbers of
the most intense tropical cyclones".
page 783
"There is evidence from modelling studies that future tropical
cyclones could become more severe, with greater wind
speeds and more intense precipitation. Studies suggest that such
changes may already be underway; there are indications that
the average number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year has
increased over the past 30 years. Some modelling studies have
projected a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones globally
due to the increased stability of the tropical troposphere
in a warmer climate, characterised by fewer weak storms and
greater numbers of intense storms. A number of modelling studies
have also projected a general tendency for more intense but
fewer storms outside the tropics, with a tendency towards more
extreme wind events and higher ocean waves in several regions
in association with those deepened cyclones. Models also project
a poleward shift of storm tracks in both hemispheres by several
degrees of latitude."
That’s what they said, particularly in the frenzy after hurricane Katrina in 2005. Clearly that isn’t what has happened.
Another failed prediction by the warmers.
Sometimes the warmers try to deny this, but then on the cover of Al Gore’s movie, there’s a hurricane coming out of a smoke stack.
From your own comments "2004 and 2005 seasons so unusually destructive" add to that, this
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081126_hurricaneseason.html
And deniers keep saying where is the increase in hurricane activity.
I suppose it’s hard to see these things if your head is buried in the sand.