What is the deal with 2008 hurricane activity?
Certain individuals have made a big deal about the fact that according to Ryan Maue (PhD student) at Florida State, in 2008 the northern hemisphere experienced low tropical cyclone activity.
However, as Maue also notes, the North Atlantic experienced an above-average hurricane season.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
According to Dr. Jeffrey Masters (Meteorologist), 2008 was the only hurricane season on record in the Atlantic that has featured major hurricanes in five separate months. Hurricane Paloma is now the second strongest November hurricane on record in the Atlantic.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1151
So the northern hemisphere had an a weak hurricane season, but the north Atlantic had an abnormally strong season? Can anyone make sense of this?
Tagged with: dr jeffrey • florida state • hurricane season • hurricanes • masters • meteorologist • northern hemisphere • paloma • tropical cyclone activity
Filed under: Hurricane Questions
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There is little "deal" with hurricanes they are a weather event a look at the science, rather than the info on sites like wattsupwiththat or the media who like to play up denier theories for headlines, would reveal that increased hurricanes are part of the predicted out comes of further warming. As such any noticeable effect in average strength or frequency is still decades away, given the current rate of average decrease in the Arctic, over the next two decades it is going to become difficult to continue to deny something is happening if the Arctic disappears during summer.
Thor: wow so you didn't hear about these
Ike
Hanna - killing 537 people, mostly in Haiti.
Gustav - causing up to 20 billion dollars in damage to Haiti, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba
Dolly - 1.5 billion dollars damage in the U.S.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Even way down here in Tasmania (big island south of Australia) Ike, Gustav and Hanna made the news, and we are literally at the ends of the earth.
Never mind the answer, there seems to be a virus on the link provided by Georgina S!
Edit; I do think it's a good question though!
the weather seems to change more each year even winters are changing in wy. where i live. the bible explains some of these changes if you believe, i do.
It has something to do with the jet stream current thingys, it move south and the west is in a drought. 1920s are back….
Dana, it’s all above my level of knowledge on the matter. Perhaps you could give us YOUR take on it. (I honestly would be interested in reading it)
All I know is it is November in Pennsylvania and I still heard tree frogs and crickets chirping last night. Saw a mosquito a week ago. And two days ago I heard Robins singing the mating songs they sing in spring. It got cooler today, but we’ve had way warmer-than-normal weather this fall.
sorry, but let me answer your question with a question.
Will the absolutely normal family please stand up?
All the hurricane data is with in statistical limits. Yeah, having hurricanes in 5 different moths doesn’t happen often, but neither does having 2 full moons in a single month.
I thought it was global warming, not North Atlantic warming.
Every season is different in some respect. There've been only about 100 seasons that are on record. So this past one is the only one with one major storm in each month in the North Atlantic - Ok this year the big storms were spread out in the calendar. Next year maybe they'll be all bunched up.
No matter what happens, you guys figure out some aspect of it that's unique and then insist that that must be a "fingerprint of man-made global warming."
Problem is, it's not the "fingerprint" anyone predicted.
But to your original point - you can do this with anything. Baseball. Pitching. We remember perfect games and no hitters. Complete games and shut-outs are much more frequent. But if you put enough variables in the mix, it makes each game more unique by comparison, and you could have a "record" once a month.
That's different from operating with a consistent set of variables, determining in advance which ones you think would result from man-made global warming, and seeing those happen - - - that is something your side hasn't been able to show. It's always a matter of after the fact determining what's different about this year relative to last year or ten years ago (there will always be something) and then blaming that, without any tangible link, on man-made global warming.
Things are pretty abnormal here on the Pacific coast as well. Tides are higher than usual.
Was it? I moved to the west coast lately and haven’t heard anything about hurricanes this year. We each have our own little local problems to deal with I guess.
Yeah sure, do a search on anticyclonic activity,jet streams, highs, terrestrial radiation(cold anti cyclones), divergence, and vorticity. Somewhere in there you will find your answer.
ed: so far the (cookie guy) is the only that has came close. Even though it's incomprehensible.
The PDO plays a larger role in hurricanes than temperature rises (if you bother to look at Hadley it has not risen since 2002). Global warming theory states that hurricanes are suppose to increase due an increase in temperatures. Since temperatures have not increased since 2002, any claims during that time period of global warming induced hurricane activity are invalid.
From NASA:
A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.
Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703
It’s called “weather”
Sure, it’s easy to answer. The Northern hemisphere has a lot less typhoons than hurricanes.
One season is too short a time period to begin to think something’s different. It’s just weather, not climate. It’s crazy to draw conclusions from one season.